For most of human history, the dominant concerns about energy have centered

游客2025-04-24 34

问题 For most of human history, the dominant concerns about energy have centered on the benefit side. Inadequacy of energy resources of the technologies for harvesting, converting, and distributing those resources has meant insufficient energy benefits to human beings and hence inconvenience, and constraints on its growth. The 1970’s, then, represented a turning point. Energy was seen to be getting costlier in all respects. It began to be believable that excessive energy costs could pose threats on a par with those of insufficient supply. It also became possible to think that expanding some forms of energy supply could create costs exceeding the benefits.
The crucial question at the beginning of the 1990’s is whether the trend that began in the 1970’s will prove to be temporary or permanent. Is the era of cheap energy really over, or will a combination of new resources, new technology and changing geopolitics bring it back? One key determinant of the answer is the staggering scale of energy demand brought forth by 100 years of population growth and industrial demand.
Except for the huge pool of oil underlying the Middle East, the cheapest oil and gas are already gone. Even if a few more giant oil fields are discovered, they will make little difference against consumption on today’s scale. Oil and gas will have to come increasingly, for most countries, from deeper in the earth and from imports whose reliability and afford-ability cannot be guaranteed.

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答案在人类历史发展长河中，人们主要关心的是能源有利的一面。开采、加工和分配这些资源所需技术的不足，意味着能源为人类带来的利益会减少，因而会造成不便，而限制人类的发展。到了20世纪70年代，出现了一个转折点，能源的多方成本均显著增长。人们自然有理由认为，高昂的能源成本所带来的威胁，已同能源供应不足所产生的危险不相上下。同时，也有人担心，依靠增加能源资源供应所需付出的代价，也许大于其所带来的利益。
20世纪90年代初期，人们关注的焦点在于，这个始于70年代的能源发展趋势是暂时的还是长远的。廉价能源时代真正一去不复返，还是通过开发新能源、应用新技术、改革地缘政治秩序等措施，有可能重登历史舞台?回答这个问题的一个关键因素是，过去100年以来因人口空前增长以及工业需求带来对能源的巨大需求。
除了中东地区蕴藏着巨大的石油资源以外，地球上最廉价的油气资源已经不复存在。即使找到几个大油田，同当今巨大的能源消耗相比，也是杯水车薪。对于大多数国家来说，油气资源越来越多地依赖于深层埋藏，越来越多地依赖进口，且不说进口油气资源的可靠性无法得到保障，其对进口国的购买力也是一个考验。

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