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  3. Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC ag

Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC ag

游客2025-04-02  27
问题     Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
    The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
    Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
    Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP(in constant prices)rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, it oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25% — 0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, Oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
    One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%. [br] We can draw a conclusion from the text that______.
选项 A、oil-price shocks are less shocking now
B、inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks
C、energy conservation can keep down the oil prices
D、the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry
答案 A
解析 从文章第1段的内容可知，自从3月份石油输出国组织达成削减供应的协议以来，原油的价格已经上涨。油价接近3倍的上涨使得人们回想起了以前的两次石油冲击，这两次石油冲击导致通货膨胀，并引发了全球性经济衰退。从第2段的内容可知，伊拉克暂停石油出口和强劲的经济增长以及北半球进入冬季等因素仍然会在短期内促使油价涨得更高。随后几段分析了原因，指出：如今，大多数国家的原油价格在汽油的价格中所占的份额比20世纪70年代所占的份额更小，所以，即使原油价格发生很大的波动，对汽油价格的影响也比过去要小。富裕国家也不像过去那样依赖石油，所以对油价的波动也不那么敏感了。节约能源、转用其他燃料以及重工业、能源密集型产业重要性的下降减少了石油的消费。此次油价上涨并不是发生在物价普遍暴涨和全球的需求过剩的背景下。据此可知，我们得出的结论就是——目前的油价上涨所产生的经济后果不会像以前那样严重了。A项与文章的意思相符，因此A项为正确答案。
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