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Occam’s Razor Developed by English academic William o

游客2024-01-04  48
问题                         Occam’s Razor
   Developed by English academic William of Occam in the 1300s, Occam’s Razor is a theory used to explain unknown or unexpected phenomena. Its guiding principle is that when something strange or new occurs, the simplest and most plausible explanation is the best one.The theory holds that a highly logical approach based on established facts and experiences is superior to one based on theories and assumptions. Therefore, people should take into account all the known facts surrounding the event, and construct an explanation that uses as few assumptions and improbabilities as possible.
M: Okay, so when something unusual happens, people often have a
  hard time explaining it. But it’s normally the simplest explanation
  that’s best, right? Like, this morning I walked past a tree and I
  noticed that the top part of it was burned. I thought this was a bit
  strange. It’s not often you see a burned tree top. So, I started to
  wonder how it got that way.
  My first thought was that maybe someone burned it on purpose. I
  figured they might have climbed the tree and set fire to it. But what
  evidence did I have to support that theory? Why would someone
  want to do that in the first place? And besides, it doesn’t explain how
  the arsonist-the person who started the fire-got down from the
  tree, either. So there are a lot of assumptions and inconsistencies
  in that theory, right?
  The second thing that occurred to me was that the tree might have
  been hit by lightning. This would explain why only the top of the
  tree got burned. And also, I remembered that there had been a
  storm early this morning. The sound of thunder had actually woken
  me up. So this theory made more sense, and it was based on the
  facts. So, it’s a much more compelling explanation.
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答案  [Topic] The professor gives a talk to demonstrate Occam’s Razor--the idea
   that the simplest and most reasonable explanation for unexpected
   phenomena is usually the best. He uses an example from his own
   experience to explain the point.
[Example] The professor says he walked past a tree and noticed it was burned
   on top, and thought that it seemed strange. The first theory he had
   to explain it was that someone had deliberately started a fire. But,
   this theory relies on too many assumptions and improbable things.
   Like, the person would have no reason to start the fire, and then
   they would have trouble getting down afterwards, too.
   However, his second theory, that the tree was struck by lightning,
   is much simpler. It’s more logical and fact-based. It explains why
   the fire only affected the top of the tree. Plus, there was actually a
   storm that morning.
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