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  3. When oil sells at high market prices, the world’s leading oil consumers, the

When oil sells at high market prices, the world’s leading oil consumers, the

游客2024-05-04  2
问题     When oil sells at high market prices, the world’s leading oil consumers, the United States, Japan and the European Union(EU), will confront bigger difficulties in concluding their domestic economic policies. Oil enterprises will face rising production costs and falling revenues. Expensive oil will compel the United States and Japan to increase federal interest rates, while making it harder for the European Central Bank(ECB) to lower its rates to simulate its economy. The U. S. trade imbalance is more severe, peaking at $ 46 billion last March. Soaring oil prices have contributed to this result. As for the growing markets in Asia, including China, higher oil prices raise import costs, drive consumer price hikes and increase inflation pressure. According to the estimation of the International Energy Agency, if the price of oil increases by $ 10 per barrel within a year, the Asian economic growth rate will drop 0. 8 percentage points. Sometime this year, China is expected to replace Japan as the world’s second largest oil importer, after the United States. In 2005, China’s oil imports are expected to reach 100 million tons. Since China’s oil purchases are primarily spot transactions, a hike in oil prices will have an exaggerated effect on its economy and people’s consuming habits.

    Despite these ill effects, the overall global economic recovery will not be reversed. The current flux of oil prices began in January 2002, yet it did not prevent the economies of the United States, Japan and the EU from pushing ahead since late 2003. A brisk increase of oil prices actually indicates, to some degree, that economic recovery spurs oil demand, though oil production has not been exceeded by demand in the international market. Aside from the impact of a cut in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)and the tense situation in the Middle East, it has been the speculations of major international oil companies that have largely contributed to the spike in oil prices.
    This will have limited effect on economic growth of the countries that are driven by sectors, such as the hi-tech and service industries. Impact will be severer in newer markets, whose economies rely more on manufacturing and are less dynamic. In fact, economic growth for the least developed countries could fall 2 percentage points. The IMF predicted that the three major economies of the United States, Japan and the EU would enjoy economic growth at 4. 6 percent, 3. 4 percent and 1. 7 percent respectively this year, even if oil price remains at $ 40 per barrel. Even when the rates drop marginally, from 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, their growth would still be higher than their respective 3.1 percent, 2. 7 percent and 0.4 percent in 2003. [br] Which of the following can be the best title for the passage?
选项 A、Changes of World Oil Prices
B、Oil Prices and the World Economy
C、What Can Oil Price Growth Bring?
D、Soaring Oil Prices’ Effect on the U. S.
答案 B
解析 主旨大意题。文章阐述了世界油价上涨对各国经济的影响，其中提到了发达国家和发展中国家，所以选项[B]符合文章内容。[A]过于笼统，“全球油价变化”相对太泛；[C]也比较笼统，文章主要侧重对经济的影响；[D]过于片面，文中不只是提到了美国经济所受的影响。
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